Election 2005
*Be ready to BLOG your comments on Election Night here*
Programme of moments to watch on Election Night:
23.30pm Seats begin to declare with Houghton & Washington East, Sunderland North and Sunderland South vying to be the first to announce their results – all safe Labour seats
00.30am Putney declares. A Labour constituency (majority 2,771) and if this goes to the Conservatives it could be very significant.
1.00am Barking – Margaret Hodge is defending a maority of 9,534. Blackburn also declares where Jack Straw is being challenged by a Muslim protest vote.
1.15am Sedgefield, the Prime Minister’s constituency, where there is an anti-war candidate, declares.
1.30am Maidenhead where Theresa May faces a nailbiting moment as she discovers whether she has held on to her marginal seat (majority 3,284)
1.45am Sir Malcolm Rifkind should mark his return to Westminster with a win in Kensington and Chelsea (majority 8,771)
2.00am The Conservative candidate Ed Vaizey, will discover whether the defection of the constituency’s (Wantage, Oxfordshire) retiring MP Robert Jackson to Labour before the election has made an impact (majority 5,600)
2.30am Wyre Forest declares. Richard Taylor, a doctor and Parliament’s sole independent MP, is defending a shock 17,630 majority he won in 2001 on a platform of saving his local hospital.
3.00am Watford – Labour majority 5,555 is statistically one that the Conservatives must win to be a significant force.
Stanley Johnson, the Conservative candidate for Teignbridge, finds out whether he has become the first father to follow his son into Parliament.
3.30am Oliver Letwin, the Shadow Chancellor, learns if he has held his marginal Dorset West seat (1,414 majority)
3.45am Arundel and South Downs, the former seat of Howard Flight – Conservative Deputy Chairman – declares.
4.00am Henley result – BORIS SEAT – also Michael Howard’s seat of Folkestone & Hythe (5,907 majority)
Dorset South – Labour’s most marginal seat – failure of the Conservatives to capture this seat could be disastrous.
For full listing of all constituencies and timings see here
87 Comments
Simon
It’s got to be under 100
Would love 100 seats to be knocked off – therefore 61
How many are you predicting for the SNP?
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For those people who are registered with yougov.com their election day poll has a question on who should replace Howard if the Torys lose.
Boris is on there
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Will you be at the Henley town hall for the announcement Melissa, or safely tucked up in bed?
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Barry – not in bed, no way! how could I catch a moment’s sleep with all this going on? Will be on the airwaves here: ready to blog. Please post your reactions to the results.
Guess on Boris’s majority? was over 8,000…deserves double that at least, let’s hope for over 10,000
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Some thoughts on UK election day.
I happen to live in a consituancy where our Member of Parliment is rather high profile. Setting aside the general campaigning which, as usual, seems to revolve around Labour and the Conservatives attacking the respective opposition leaders and the Libe…
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Melissa: “How many are you predicting for the SNP?”
Seven seats in total. We will be watching 10 seats closely, expecting to get six or seven.
The Liberal Democrats will probably do well. Westminster LibDems are a lot more popular than the Holyrood variety.
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4.01am Melissa dances round Henley Town Hall in her underwear.
Dorset South: Missing out on this seat would be no great disaster for Conservatives – Ed Matts completely wrecked his campaign on the first day with his campaign literature gaffe and has been struggling ever since. He may still sneak in if enough Labour voters defect to the Libs Dems. Like me, for example.
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Good Luck – to Boris and his Old Man on this here Election Day.
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Scaryduck – how outrageous!
You’re pretty crucial in Dorset South … keep in our crew and vote Blue
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Too late Melissa, I’m a postal voter, and used all sixteen* of my votes on the Ginger Drunk.
*one
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Only one?
and… ah, your vote might have been different had you remained a Henley resident…
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This may be absurdly simplistic, but focusing on the 80 most marginal Labour seats, and making some assumptions, this is my election guide:
2% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 10 seats
4.5% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 20 seats
6% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 30 seats
8% anti-Labour swing= Labour lose 40 seats
9% anti-Labour swing= Labour lose 50 seats
10% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 60 seats
11% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 70 seats
12% anti-Labour swing = Labour lose 80 seats and their majority in the House of Commons
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… the suspense is terrifying and killing … six more nailbiting hours to go !!!!
Keep all comments coming so we get a balanced outlook …
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Simon – correct me if I’m wrong but a 12% swing would be one of the largest swings in the last 100 years? Would it not.
Mellissa – the suspense must be terrifying – after all you could be out of a job tomarrow morning:( GOOD LUCK:)
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Nick:”a 12% swing would be one of the largest swings in the last 100 years? Would it not.”
I would think so. The 1997 swing to Labour was apparently 10.5%. It’s almost impossible for the Tories and the Lib Dems to win – even in tandem.
I think we may see some big swings in individual seats (Sedgefield and Blackburn?) but I can’t see it in Britain overall.
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Nick: Melissa’s got other irons in the fire, and will be appearing on ITV’s Celebrity Wrestling on Saturday belting Cherie Blair with a ski pole should Boris lose his seat. Luckily, Boris isn’t going to lose his seat, and I look forward to another classic speech (“Let us return to our homes and prepare for breakfast”) from the master.
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Boris is the best boss in London so am strongly rooting for the Blue vote in Henley
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Here are the swings at past British general elections from 1945.
+ = Conservative gain
- = Labour gain
1945 -12%
1950 +2.9%
1951 +1.1%
1955 +1.8%
1959 +1.2%
1964 -3.1%
1966 +2.8%
1970 +4.9%
1974 -0.8%
1974 -2.2%
1979 +5.3%
1983 +4.1%
1987 -1.7%
1992 -2.1%
1997 -10.2%
2001 +1.8%
This information is from:
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/ lib/research/notes/snSG-02608.pdf
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I want to stay up to watch the election but I can’t because I’ve got my English SAT tomorrow. How inconsiderate of them.
Although I support the Lib Dems in my area I still want Boris to win. Good Luck.
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Love your pseudonym – piggysqueak – and much appreciate your thought
Good luck in your SAT!
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Boris writes:
I’ve just been standing in a Conservative committee room
watching the votes spool ever upwards like house prices in
Oxfordshire; I am therefore full of confidence that whatever
happens we are now seeing the end of the Blair premiership.
Even if – which I do not for a moment concede – Tony Blair hangs on
to his job tonight, he will find it increasingly unbearable. Not
only will he face a revived and invigorated Tory party, but
also ranged behind him will be the vengeful spirits of his
backbenchers, consumed with self-loathing for what they
supported in Iraq, and determined to jugulate Mr Tony as soon
as they can. It will not be a pretty sight
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Boris due on BBC Election coverage sometime
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Flaky result in Sunderland!
Re-count in Wirral West!!
Really, really good…
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Chicken Yoghourt have an Election Liveblog Guide. There are about 20 blogs participating:
See http://chickyog.blogspot.com/
I am going over to using two screens – wish I had more!
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UK votes today
The United Kingdom is holding a general election and local elections today. The polls are closed, and the first results are expected to be declared at about 5:30 p.m. CDT. Iain Murray will be live-blogging the election. Writer and Conservative MP Boris…
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Election night timetable
I put this up yesterday but I’m continually adding to the information. Please let me know if there are any errors! Here are approximate times for all the Scottish constituency declarations, and the top 40 Labour marginals (plus a few others), bas…
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hey – their prediction is close to mine Simon!
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The result in sunderland might be flaky, lovely, but that doesn’t mean Labour won’t win. Mine has been a safe labour seat for bleams (say nothing Mac!) but a conservative council won recently for the first time in 20 years. I was amazed to see Stourbridge as a marginal. Discontentment with Labour should have been acted on and had the backing of central office. I’ve seen nothing of the Tory candidate and had only ONE leaflet from both conservative and LibDem.
Sadly, Boz Cat, not everyone seems to have the initiative and vigour of the Johnsons.
On an extreemly trivial note: did anyone see The full Monty tonight? By ‘eck the Johnsons are sittin’ on a fortune!
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I have a horrible feeling that my 0730 start is going to be on less than 3 hours sleep. There should be rules against this!
Assuming Boris voted for himself, i can guarantee he gets at least 2 votes. Which, hopefully, will actually be the total votes received for all the rest of the candidates…giving boris a record majority. Hopefully.
When’s he on TV tonight, which channel, and where is he? If i wander into town, can i blag a coffee off him?
Right…time to go sellotape my eyelids open…
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Oh, double espresso…no sugar for me!
(Says he hopefully!)
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He’s just been on BBC with Jeremy Paxman, Ian Hislop and some Labour twit who just steam rollers over everyone.
This election is very important I know, but I get SO fed up with Labour that it really does make me want to either switch off or be very silly. No wonder people just turn away from the whole process.
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Pah, missed it! Saw Blunkett getting upset with Paxman though..bless!
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Glad I saw it – Ian Hislop has legs! They go all the way to the floor and everything! Bless.
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Hislop gone, but Boris still in studio…looking marvelously dishevelled in his usual ineffable style!
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well done for staying up Psimon – it’s getting more exciting by the minute: Putney going Blue!
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ITV have 73 seats declared, BBC have 44…exciting? i’m just getting confused!
Any sniffs on how Henley went?
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Recount in Battersea. I’m tired now but want to see how Stanley does in Teignbridge. Is he blogging?
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Psimon – too early for Henley..
Stanley blogs on Channel 4 site the day after..
Simon Holledge – good news for you with the Western Isles!
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Yay, well done Peterborough!
Hope Blair has packed his brown underwear..
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amazing Peterborough!
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*looks like Boris majority set to go over 10,000 (from over 8,000)*
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oops, dozed off sorry, any news of a johnson win?
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something i said people? anyone going to talk to me?
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oh well i’ll just go then
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Jaq – good result for Boris..sorry having trouble keeping awake at times
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Really fascinating. I was expecting to read other blogs but instead I ended up concentrating on my own and trying to keep up with the results as they came in.
SNP result was OK. Winning the Western Isles was great but Ochil & South Perthshire was disappointing. The Liberal Democrats did well here in Scotland, rather as I expected.
Difficult to know what pressures will now be on Blair.
What is the majority supposed to be now?
Maybe you will be right, Melissa?
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Congratulations to Boris. Am I the last person posting here?
Melissa, the Labour majority is being predicted at 66. You were close. How did you get on with those bottles of whatever it was?
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Simon – not much consumed on the bottle front as it was all too gripping.
Am very bleary-eyed and will rest to be ready for the challenges of next week!
Good to hear from you
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Blogging the dawn
I attempted to follow all the Scottish seats and the top 40 Labour marginals – entirely on the internet, without a television. Before counting started, I had listed all these seats with approximate declaration times. It was impossible. The declaration …
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I have trackbacked on Boris’s result, but just to say that I believe that Labour have won with the lowest percentage popular vote in British history.
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